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The Chart of the Month Vol.15 is focused on the Material Demand Forecast for Strategic Energy Transition Technologies.
A massive increase in wind and solar PV installations, batteries, and hydrogen electrolyzers is required for the EU’s REPowerEU energy shift ambitions. This will lead to a rise in demand for vital and strategic commodities, many of which are needed for target-achieving technologies. Copper, aluminum, lithium, and steel are the four key metals powering the change and as the total volume of minerals used expands, it could lead to a supercycle for metals and mining industry. Greece has significant quantities of strategic resources and already mines five critical mineral raw materials to produce: bauxite, nickel, cobalt, magnesite, and high-quality quartz.
For Greece’s energy transition and to achieve its ambitious goals, its dependence on strategic commodities is also increasing. More specifically, the new additional capacity of Solar parks is expected to reach a total of 14.1 GW by 2030. This corresponds to 427 ktonnes of metal intensity by 2030. Furthermore, Greece targets to have an additional 2.5 GW and 2.7 GW of Onshore and Offshore Wind by 2030, respectively, designating to 596 ktonnes of metals by 2030. The development of electricity infrastructure is a key strategic pillar and according to IPTO’s and HEDNO’s plan, the total demand for copper and aluminum is estimated in the order of 83 ktonnes for the next years. All these advancements occur during a period when the prices of critical materials have presented high volatility and are expected to remain higher than the previous years, which could potentially threaten the clean-energy investment plans.